Rumble (NASDAQ: RUM), a streaming video platform for smaller content creators that was founded in 2013 as an alternative to YouTube, went public by merging with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) just over two years ago. The combined company’s stock started trading at $12.44 on the first day, but it now trades at about $6.

Rumble’s stock was cut in half as its growth slowed down, it shed active users, it racked up persistent losses, and rising interest rates compressed its valuations. But could this underdog of the streaming video market bounce back over the next three years?

What happened over the past three years?

Rumble claims it’s a politically “neutral” video and cloud platform that doesn’t censor (or moderate) the content its users post the way that big tech platforms like Alphabet‘s Google and YouTube, Meta‘s Facebook and Instagram, and others do. As a result, it’s gained a lot more attention (and usage) from conservative and right-leaning content creators who claim their content is being censored across those other platforms. It’s also backed by prominent conservatives like Peter Thiel, Vivek Ramaswamy, and vice presidential candidate and U.S. Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), and its new cloud service hosts Trump Media‘s Truth Social platform.

Rumble’s number of monthly active users (MAUs) peaked at 80 million in the fourth quarter of 2022, but that figure dropped to 67 million at the end of 2023 and 53 million by the end of the second quarter of 2024. The company blamed that slowdown on the volatile news cycle and Google’s new restrictions on content creators automatically syncing their content across YouTube and Rumble channels. That’s why its growth slowed down significantly as its net losses widened.

Data source: Rumble. YOY = year over year.

Rumble’s average minutes watched per month also fell from 11.1 billion at the end of 2022 to 8.5 billion at the end of the second quarter, even though its hours of daily uploaded video rose from 10,373 to 13,342 during the same period. So even though more content is still being uploaded to Rumble, fewer people are actually sticking around and watching all of those videos.

What’s Rumble’s near-term outlook?

Rumble hasn’t provided a clear outlook for the second half of 2024, but the U.S. elections could drive a lot more viewers to its platform. Assuming those tailwinds kick in, analysts expect its revenue to grow 29% to $104.7 million for the full year as it slightly narrows its net loss to $114.6 million. However, its balance sheet still looks fragile with just $152 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities at the end of its latest quarter.

Rumble claims that as it ramps up its monetization strategies and tightens its spending, it can “move materially toward” generating a breakeven adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in 2025 — compared to analysts’ expectations for a negative adjusted EBITDA of $87 million in 2024.

What could happen over the next three years?

Looking ahead, Rumble could benefit from Google’s regulatory setbacks over the next few years. Rumble already filed two lawsuits against Google over the past three years: The first one accuses Google of promoting its YouTube videos over competing videos in its own search results, while the second alleges that Google leverages its dominance of the digital advertising market to stifle the growth of smaller advertising platforms. The U.S. Department of Justice’s recent antitrust victory against Google — which could force the tech giant to divest some of its assets — could tilt the scales in Rumble’s favor.

Another potential catalyst is the U.S. government’s planned ban on ByteDance’s TikTok, which could take effect in January. Some prominent conservatives, including GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump, oppose that ban — but it would eliminate one of Rumble’s biggest competitors in the streaming video market.

For now, analysts expect Rumble’s revenue to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 31% from 2023 to 2026, to $183 million. But with an enterprise value of $1.6 billion, Rumble still doesn’t look like a bargain at 13 times next year’s sales. Its insiders also sold nearly four times as many shares as they sold over the past 12 months.

The U.S. election, Google’s regulatory troubles, and the TikTok ban might generate some near-term interest in Rumble, but I don’t think those gains are sustainable. Unless Rumble stabilizes its core growth metrics and meaningfully narrows its losses, I wouldn’t put too much faith in its plans to scale up its business and become an alternative to YouTube — which firmly dominates the streaming video market with more than 2.5 billion active users.

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Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Leo Sun has positions in Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.